Who’s Going to Win? – Week 4 Picks

What I learned last week:

  • The reason Florida was so bad last year may not have just been their injuries.
  • Texas is bipolar.
  • I’m still not afraid of UCLA (except when ASU’s starting QB is out).
  • Always beware of post-big-victory hangovers (re:Virginia Tech and USC).

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in italics. Please note, upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this. They are not necessarily based on rankings.

Last week’s results: 40-11 (.784), upset picks: 1-1 (.500)
Overall: 102-32 (.761), upset picks: 4-7 (.364)

Upset picks this week:
UCONN over South Florida
NORTH CAROLINA over East Carolina
WAKE FOREST over Army
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at Wyoming
UTAH ST over Arkansas St

Upset of the Week: MIAMI over Nebraska

#5 AUBURN at #20 Kansas St
UCONN at South Florida
#22 Clemson at #1 FLORIDA ST
#2 OREGON at Washington St
Florida at #3 ALABAMA
#4 OKLAHOMA at West Virginia
#6 TEXAS A&M at SMU
Mississippi St at #8 LSU
Eastern Michigan at #11 MICHIGAN ST
Troy at #13 GEORGIA
#14 SOUTH CAROLINA at Vanderbilt
Indiana at #18 MISSOURI
Bowling Green at #19 WISCONSIN
Virginia at #21 BYU
MIAMI (FL) at #24 Nebraska
Georgia Tech at VIRGINIA TECH
Iowa at PITT
Old Dominion at RICE
Maryland at SYRACUSE
Tulane at DUKE
MARSHALL at Akron
Hawaii at COLORADO
NORTH CAROLINA at East Carolina
Army at WAKE FOREST
LOUISVILLE at Florida International
Central Michigan at KANSAS
Rutgers at NAVY
Utah at MICHIGAN
Texas St at ILLINOIS
UMass at PENN ST
San Jose St at MINNESOTA
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at Wyoming
Georgia St at WASHINGTON
Northern Illinois at ARKANSAS
UTAH ST at Arkansas St
Miami (OH) at CINCINNATI
Middle Tennessee at MEMPHIS
Appalachian St at SOUTHERN MISS
Ball St at TOLEDO
Idaho at OHIO
Georgia Southern at SOUTH ALABAMA
UNLV at HOUSTON
NEW MEXICO at New Mexico St
Cal at ARIZONA
San Diego St at OREGON ST
Louisiana-Lafayette at BOISE ST

Plan Accordingly: What to Watch – Week 4

Week 4 looks to be an average week. But I’m sure a handful of these games will turn into classics (e.g. Kentucky/Florida, UCLA/Texas, BC/USC, ECU/VT). Clemson at Florida St is not on the list. That’s not a mistake. I’m forecasting a blow out.

Here’s what you need to watch this weekend. All times AZ.

UPDATED 9/18/14: I felt like I was being a little stingy with my game ratings, so I’ve modified my process and updated the ratings below.

5-Star Games

NONE

4-Star Games

Iowa at Pitt Saturday 9:00 AM ESPNU
Utah at Michigan Saturday 12:30 PM ESPN2
Mississippi St at #8 LSU Saturday 4:00 PM ESPN
Miami at #24 Nebraska Saturday 5:00 PM ESPN2

3-Star Games

#5 Auburn at #20 Kansas St Thursday 4:30 PM ESPN
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech Saturday 9:00 AM ESPN
Maryland at Syracuse Saturday 9:30 AM ACCN
North Carolina at East Carolina Saturday 12:30 PM ESPNU
Rutgers at Navy Saturday 12:30 PM CBSSN

2-Star Games

Northern Illinois at Arkansas Saturday 4:00 PM ESPNU

1-Star Games

Virginia at #21 BYU Saturday 12:30 PM ESPN
Indiana at #18 Missouri Saturday 1:00 PM SECN
Cal at Arizona Saturday 7:00 PM PAC12

Who’s Going to Win? – Week 3 Picks

Week 2 went a little better. What I learned:

  1. The Big Ten isn’t very good.
  2. The bottom three quarters of the Pac-12 is suspect.
  3. Even though they’re 0-2, Hawai’i is better than we thought.
  4. UTSA will be one of the Group of Five power teams in the next five years.
  5. BYU!?
  6. Michigan?!

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in italics. Please note, upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this. They are not necessarily based on rankings.

Last week‘s results: 36-9 (.800), upset picks: 2-4 (.333)
Overall: 62-21 (.747), upset picks: 3-6 (.333)

Upset picks this week:
WESTERN MICHIGAN over Idaho
WESTERN KENTUCKY over Middle Tennessee

Houston at #25 BYU
Louisiana Tech at NORTH TEXAS
#8 BAYLOR at Buffalo
Toledo at CINCINNATI
Wyoming at #2 OREGON
Southern Miss at #3 ALABAMA
Tennessee at #4 OKLAHOMA
#6 GEORGIA at #24 South Carolina
Rice at #7 TEXAS A&M
#9 USC at Boston College
Louisiana-Monroe at #10 LSU
Purdue vs. #11 NOTRE DAME (at Indianapolis)
#12 UCLA vs. Texas (at Arlington)
Louisiana-Lafayette at #14 OLE MISS
Army at #15 STANFORD
#16 ARIZONA ST at Colorado
East Carolina at #17 VIRGINIA TECH
UCF at #20 MISSOURI
#21 LOUISVILLE at Virginia
Kent St at #22 OHIO ST
West Virginia at MARYLAND
INDIANA at Bowling Green
SYRACUSE at Central Michigan
BOISE ST at UConn
Ohio at MARSHALL
UMass at VANDERBILT
Georgia Southern at GEORGIA TECH
PITT at Florida International
AIR FORCE at Georgia St
Arkansas at TEXAS TECH
Iowa St at IOWA
Arkansas St at MIAMI (FL)
NC STATE at South Florida
Kansas at DUKE
Miami (OH) at MICHIGAN
Minnesota at TCU
Illinois at WASHINGTON
MISSISSIPPI ST at South Alabama
WESTERN MICHIGAN at Idaho
Eastern Michigan at OLD DOMINION
UTSA at OKLAHOMA ST
WESTERN KENTUCKY at Middle Tennessee
Wake Forest at UTAH ST
TULSA at Florida Atlantic
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at UNLV
Kentucky at FLORIDA
PENN ST at Rutgers
NAVY at Texas St
New Mexico St at UTEP
NEBRASKA at Fresno St
Nevada at ARIZONA

Plan Accordingly: What to Watch – Week 3

Thanks, Michigan and Texas, for making the games of the week so terrible last week.

Week 3 is less than exciting. Regardless, here’s what you need to watch this weekend. All times AZ.

5-Star Games (aka Games of the Week)

NONE

4-Star Games

UCF at #20 Missouri Saturday 9:00 AM SECN
#6 Georgia at #24 South Carolina Saturday 12:30 PM CBS

3-Star Games

NONE

2-Star Games

NONE

1-Star Games

Arkansas at Texas Tech Saturday 12:30 PM ABC
Minnesota at TCU Saturday 1:00 PM FS1
Kentucky at Florida Saturday 4:30 PM SECN
#12 UCLA vs. Texas (in Arlington) Saturday 5:00 PM FOX

I’ve heard a lot about the Big Ten’s poor performance last weekend. And while I agree, I haven’t heard much about the Pac-12’s rough weekend.

  1. Arizona got lucky to beat UTSA.
  2. Washington St loses by two scores to Nevada.
  3. Colorado squeaks by after giving up 38 points to UMASS!
  4. Washington barely holds on to beat a DI-AA team in Eastern Washington AT HOME!
  5. Stanford and USC did not look good against each other.
  6. UCLA gives up 35 points to Memphis and only wins by one score.
  7. Oregon St survives a scare vs Hawaii.

I’m not saying the Big Ten doesn’t deserve the heat they’re taking, but a few plays here and there, and the Pac-12 is in the same boat.

Plan Accordingly: Best Games to Watch – Week 2

Here’s what you need to watch this weekend. Week 2 looks to be great. All times AZ.

5-Star Games (aka Games of the Week)

Michigan at Notre Dame Saturday 4:30 PM NBC
BYU at Texas Saturday 4:30 PM FS1

4-Star Games

USC at Stanford Saturday 12:30 PM ABC
Michigan St at Oregon Saturday 3:30 PM FOX

3-Star Games

Virginia Tech at Ohio St Saturday 5:00 PM ESPN

2-Star Games

Missouri at Toledo Saturday 9:00 AM ESPN
Navy at Temple Saturday 10:00 AM ESPN3
Northern Illinois at Northwestern Saturday 5:00 PM BTN

1-Star Games

Ball St at Iowa Saturday 12:30 PM ESPN2
Arkansas St at Tennessee Saturday 9:00 AM SECN
Darrell_K_Royal-Texas_Memorial_Stadium_at_Night

Who’s Going to Win? – Week 2 Picks

Week 1 was happy to remind me that I had no idea what I was talking about. Let’s get better this week.

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in italics. Please note, upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this. They are not necessarily based on rankings.

Last week’s results: 26-12 (.684)
Upset picks: 1-2 (.333)

Upset picks this week:
BUFFALO over Army
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Purdue
TEMPLE over Navy
GEORGIA ST over New Mexico St
TEXAS over BYU
WYOMING over Air Force

ARIZONA at UTSA
PITT at Boston College
WASHINGTON ST at Nevada
Florida Atlantic at #2 ALABAMA
#7 Michigan State at #3 OREGON
#4 OKLAHOMA at Tulsa
San Jose State at #5 AUBURN
Virginia Tech at #8 OHIO ST
Memphis at #11 UCLA
#14 USC at #13 STANFORD
#15 OLE MISS at Vanderbilt
Michigan at #16 NOTRE DAME
#17 ARIZONA ST at New Mexico
#20 KANSAS ST at Iowa State
East Carolina at #21 SOUTH CAROLINA
San Diego State at #21 NORTH CAROLINA
#24 MISSOURI at Toledo
Arkansas State at TENNESSEE
BUFFALO at Army
SMU at NORTH TEXAS
Western Kentucky at ILLINOIS
Akron at PENN ST
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at Purdue
Navy at TEMPLE
SOUTH ALABAMA at Kent State
UAB at MISSISSIPPI ST
New Mexico State at GEORGIA ST
Fresno State at UTAH
COLORADO at Massachusetts
Ohio at KENTUCKY
Northern Illinois at NORTHWESTERN
MARYLAND at South Florida
Ball State at IOWA
Middle Tennessee at MINNESOTA
GEORGIA TECH at Tulane
Eastern Michigan at FLORIDA
Old Dominion at NC State
DUKE at Troy
Louisiana Tech at LOUISIANA
Idaho at UL-MONROE
BYU at TEXAS
Air Force at WYOMING
Colorado State at BOISE ST
OREGON ST at Hawaii
TEXAS TECH at UTEP